The main reason for the rise in raw materials in 2021

In fact, the reason for the increase in raw material prices is nothing more than two factors: one is the oversupply of currency; the other is the decline in output!

1. Over-issuance of currency: According to the principles of economics, the total amount of goods in the society is fixed within a certain period of time. If the corresponding amount of money is issued, then the value of the goods and currency in the entire society is equal For example, the current value of all commodities in society is 100 trillion, and the issued currency is also 100 trillion, then 1 yuan = 1 pack of instant noodles at this time; but if the actual amount of currency issued exceeds the actual value of the commodity, it will Cause inflation (currency depreciation, price increase), for example, the value of all commodities in society is 100 trillion, but the currency issued is 200 trillion, then at this time 1 pack of instant noodles = 2 yuan, invisibly, the commodity The price of the currency rises, and the value of the currency falls.

The world’s biggest event in 2020 is the new crown epidemic. After the outbreak, countries have adopted quantitative easing economic stimulus policies and continuously printed money. For example, from the balance sheet data of central banks, only the first half of 2020 will Except for my country's negative growth, the other major economies have positive growth. In terms of absolute numbers, the U.S. is the first to secure the first place. From the end of January to June, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by more than 3 trillion U.S. dollars, because the U.S. dollar is the world’s currency. Each of the 7.5 billion people in the world must bleed $400 to rescue American companies and individuals. Therefore, the over-issued currency of central banks will inevitably lead to the increase in the price of raw materials. Of course, it takes a certain time for the over-issued currency to circulate in the market to affect the terminal. Therefore, the price of raw materials only began to rise in the second half of last year, and the price of terminal commodities It didn't start to rise until the end of the year. This was due to the timeliness of price transmission.

2. Production decline: Since the global outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, with the exception of China’s strong control, other countries are basically still affected by the epidemic. Under the impact of the epidemic, many companies’ production has been affected, such as In the automotive chip industry, global chip suppliers are experiencing shortages due to the epidemic. CCTV Finance twice reported the shortage of automotive chips in January and February 2021. The American Bernstein Research Company predicts that in 2021 The global shortage of automotive chips will cause the loss of up to 4.5 million car production, which is equivalent to nearly 5% of the global annual car production. Therefore, the supply of products in the market is in short supply, which will inevitably lead to an increase in product prices.

Summarize

Before the epidemic is fully controlled, it can be expected that the prices of raw materials and terminal commodities will continue to rise in 2021. At the same time, people's income will continue to decline due to the impact of the epidemic. Therefore, we must learn financial planning. Avoid hating less when the money is available!