Benefiting from the trend of electrification, the pipeline application has been expanded to the battery system, motor, electric control thermal management system of new energy vehicles, and ASP has been raised to the level of more than 1000 yuan to further open up the industry space. We believe that the pipeline industry market is expected to further focus on suppliers with scale advantages and rich supporting experience, and independent suppliers are expected to gain greater market share after the scale effect of superimposed technology upgrading.

With the development of Dongfeng by new energy vehicles, the pipeline industry ushered in the expansion of market space. The complexity of thermal management of new energy vehicles has increased, resulting in a large number of new on-board pipeline requirements. According to our calculation, the value of pure electric vehicle pipeline per vehicle is up to 1500 yuan, while the hybrid vehicle has both engine cooling system and three-electric system thermal management, and the pipeline system is more complex, with a total ASP of 1800 yuan. Based on our expectation of the sales volume of new energy vehicles, we estimate that the domestic market size of new energy vehicle pipeline will reach 23.3 billion yuan in 2025, including 17.5 billion yuan in thermal management pipeline market, and the CAGR of the market size of new energy vehicle pipeline in 2022-2025 will be 30.3%.

The trend of lightweight and high pressure resistance drives the technological upgrading of pipeline materials. At present, rubber tube, nylon tube and metal tube are commonly used in mainstream vehicle pipeline. Thanks to the advantages of nylon pipe and TPV (thermoplastic vulcanized rubber) pipe in weight, mechanical strength, corrosion resistance, permeability resistance and other properties, nylon pipe and TPV pipe gradually replace traditional metal and rubber pipes. We expect that the market scale of nylon pipe for new energy vehicles is expected to reach 10 billion yuan by 2025. In addition, the R744 heat pump puts forward higher requirements on the performance of pipeline products, which further promotes the value of air conditioning pipeline to 2000 yuan per vehicle.

Self-supporting new energy vehicle manufacturers have increased their market share. On the one hand, in recent years, domestic automotive pipeline suppliers have continuously expanded their business scale through mergers and acquisitions, independent research and development and other ways. Some leading companies have entered the parts procurement system of joint ventures and even international complete vehicle plants by virtue of joint ventures or their own production technology advantages, actively gaining global market share, and fully benefiting from the domestic trend of electrification to enter new energy complete vehicle plants. On the other hand, suppliers that mainly support self-owned brand vehicle manufacturers also benefit from the rising penetration of new energy vehicles, and gradually support new power vehicle manufacturers and self-owned brand new energy vehicles. We believe that as the penetration rate of self-owned brands and new energy vehicles increases, auto pipeline suppliers are expected to enter the growth channel of both volume and price, and gain global market share by virtue of scale expansion and supporting experience accumulation.

risk

The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased less than expected, and the upgrading of materials and technical routes was less than expected.